" the storms battering the East Asia Coastline, and the dry, smoky season building here in Sydney — isn't coincidence "
南海肆虐的风暴,与悉尼正在逼近的干燥、烟雾弥漫的季节——并非巧合。
"That 18-year-old sitting across from you on the bus—headphones in, scrolling through her phone—just spent the last week watching her hometown flood. You're about to smell hazard reduction smoke on your way to work. You don't know it yet, but you're living through the same climate pattern she's watching unfold—8,000 kilometers apart."
这个坐在你对面公交车上的18岁女孩——戴着耳机,刷着手机——刚刚度过了在手机上看着家乡被淹的一周。你即将在上班路上闻到减灾焚烧的烟味。你还不知道,但你正与她一起,经历着同一种气候模式——相隔8,000公里。
We noticed something this season—storms hitting parts of East Asia, and the smoke starting to build here. Same climate driver, 8,000 km apart. We put this explainer together for our neighbours in Sydney, because we think it helps to understand what we're all about to walk into.
我们注意到这个季节正在发生的事——中国多地遭遇强台风,悉尼这边,森林火灾季节的烟雾也开始弥漫。同一个气候推手,隔着 8,000 公里同时在发力。我们把这篇解读整理出来,给悉尼的街坊邻居们看看,了解一下接下来我们可能要共同面对什么。
What connects these two things — the storms battering East Asia, and the dry, smoky season building here in Sydney — isn't coincidence. It's the same climate pattern, playing out in two different directions on either side of the equator.
连接这两件事的——南海肆虐的风暴,与悉尼正在逼近的干燥、烟雾弥漫的季节——并非巧合。这是同一种气候模式,在赤道两侧,以两种不同的方式展开。
The El Niño's effect on Asia's typhoon season is pushing storms further west into South China (like Guangdong) and East China (like Fujian and Zhejiang).
厄尔尼诺现象对亚洲台风季节的影响,正将风暴进一步向西推进至华南(如广东)和华东(如福建、浙江)地区。
The impact has been immense — over 17 million people have been affected by flooding and severe weather so far this year. Since then, further typhoons — including Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel — have brought fresh flooding and mass evacuations across Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong through August and September, meaning the true toll for 2026 is now considerably higher.
影响巨大——今年以来,全国已有超过1700万人受到洪水和恶劣天气的影响。此后,台风巴威(Bavi)、多芬(Dolphin)和苏迪罗(Saudel)等相继来袭,进一步引发浙江、福建、广东等地的洪灾与大规模疏散,2026年全年的实际受灾人数目前已远高于此。
Every semester, tens of thousands of international students return to Sydney — some as young as 18 — This year, many are returning from a typhoon season battering their home towns, to a city quietly bracing for a season of its own.
每学期,都有数以万计的国际学生返回悉尼——其中有些年仅18岁。今年,许多人正从遭受台风季侵袭的中国南部返回,来到一座正悄然为自身季节做准备的城市。
Here in Sydney, the same climate driver means we're bracing for a tough, dry summer ahead — hazard reduction burns already underway, more to come as the season builds.
在悉尼,同样的气候驱动因素意味着我们正面临一个艰难、干燥的夏季——减灾焚烧作业已经开始,随着季节的推进,还会有更多
Different places, same season. And through it, we're reminded that it's community that pulls people through — the small gestures, the people who show up for each other when things get hard.
不同的地方,同一个季节。而这也提醒着我们:是社区的力量支撑着人们度过难关——那些微小的举动,那些在困难时刻彼此扶持的人。
This semester, that's meant teaming up with Lan Shi Beef Noodles to welcome students back with something warm. and a g'day and nod that we see whats going on at home.
Since first publishing this piece, we ran our Lan Shi Beef Noodles community partnership through August — a small, practical way of welcoming students back to Sydney during exactly this kind of season.
这个学期,这意味着我们与兰氏牛肉面合作,用一些温暖的食物欢迎学生回来,再加上一句“G'day”(澳洲式问候)和点头示意,表明我们了解他们家乡正在发生的情况。
自本文首次发布以来,我们于8月期间开展了与兰氏牛肉面的社区合作——在这样的季节里,以一种简单而实际的方式,欢迎学生们返回悉尼
Our Community Partnership Campaign /
This infographic breaks down the mechanics of El Niño. It shows how warming ocean waters (the "Water Engine") weaken the trade winds (the "Wind Engine"), creating a feedback loop that shifts global weather patterns. For Asia, this pushes typhoon tracks further west toward China, feeding them with warmer water. For Australia, the shift brings sinking dry air, causing hotter, drier weather and a significantly higher bushfire risk.
这张信息图解释了厄尔尼诺现象的运作原理。它展示了海水变暖("水之引擎")如何减弱信风("风之引擎"),形成一个循环并改变全球气候格局。对于亚洲而言,这会将台风路径推往更西侧的中国近海。而对于澳大利亚,该现象则带来下沉的干热气流,导致天气更加炎热干燥,并显著增加森林火灾的风险。
BOM — Bureau of Meteorology, "El Niño: what it means for Australia's climate"
澳大利亚气象局——《厄尔尼诺现象对澳大利亚气候的影响》
https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate
NOAA — "Understanding El Niño & ENSO"
美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)——《理解厄尔尼诺现象与ENSO》
https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino
NASA — NASA Science, "El Niño"
美国国家航空航天局(NASA)——《厄尔尼诺现象》
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/
JTWC — Joint Typhoon Warning Center (official tropical cyclone tracking for the Pacific)
联合台风警报中心(JTWC)——太平洋热带气旋官方追踪机构
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Ministry of Emergency Management of China, via ECNS (China News Service) — "Natural disasters affect about 17.28 million people in China in H1," July 14, 2026.
中国应急管理部数据,转引自中国新闻网(ECNS)——《2026年上半年中国超1700万人次受自然灾害影响》,2026年7月14日。
http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-14/detail-ihfhkrtk6170500.shtml
Hui Su, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, quoted in Insurance Journal — "Catastrophic Storms to Test China's Resilience in 2026, Scientists Warn," July 10, 2026.
香港科技大学许骙教授,引自《Insurance Journal》——《2026年灾难性风暴考验中国韧性,科学家发出警告》,2026年7月10日。
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/07/10/876881.htm
August 1, 2026.
中国气象局(CMA)——《厄尔尼诺事件或将成为150年来最强》,2026年8月1日。
https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/news/NewsEvents/news/202608/t20260803_7966277.html
CCTV Finance, via Eastday — Report on CMA's 150-year El Niño forecast, August 1, 2026.
央视财经,转引自东方网——《中国气象局:厄尔尼诺或将成为150年来最强》,2026年8月1日。
https://nw.eastday.com/bjzx/20260802/34810d2d2f2b49b5bcc499a1fb3c1bda.html
The Paper — "Super El Niño set to become strongest in 150 years, could make 2027 hottest year on record," August 3, 2026.
澎湃新闻——《超强厄尔尼诺或将成为150年来最强,2027年或成最热年份》,2026年8月3日。
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_33709854
New Scientist — "This El Niño will be the hottest by a huge margin" (notes 90% chance of becoming strongest in 150 years), July 23, 2026.
《新科学家》——《本次厄尔尼诺将大幅刷新高温纪录》(指出有90%概率成为150年来最强),2026年7月23日。
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2581151-this-el-nino-will-be-the-hottest-by-a-huge-margin/
Bureau of Meteorology — "El Niño: what it means for Australia's climate," 2026.
澳大利亚气象局——《厄尔尼诺现象对澳大利亚气候的影响》,2026年。
https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate
NSW Rural Fire Service — Hazard Reductions, planned burns across Greater Sydney.
新南威尔士州农村消防局(NSW RFS)——大悉尼地区计划中的灾害预防燃烧信息。
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/hazard-reductions
NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS). Bush Fire Bulletin Liftout: Weather and Bush Fire Behaviour. Training material. Available at: [link]